Application of Statistical and Econometric Models for the Analysis of Labor Markets in Poland and Slovakia
In this paper we consider the opportunities of the application of statistical and econometric models for the analysis of labour markets in Poland and Slovakia. One of actual problems of economic integration for the EU-members countries candidates for EU membership is the problem of the analysis and coordination of the local labour markets. As was marked in the documents of the European Union (March, 2003) for the countries, which are going to become the new members of EU, it is necessary to decide a number of the basic tasks [6]. Poland, actively preparing for joining EU, has developed the JAP program, in which the directions of employment strategy were precisely formulated within the framework of the European employment strategy. However, as the analysis of labour market condition of Poland has shown many problems of the labour market after joining EU still require the urgent solution. So, for the period of 2003-2004 the rate of unemployment increased, the economic activity of the population decreased a little, there are disproportions in the labour market caused by the regional, social and demographic reasons. In this connection it is necessary to carry out the analysis of the common tendencies and to reveal the influence of the mentioned factors on the regional labour markets in Poland. The estimation of the regional labour markets condition by a number of social and economic indexes allows to distinguish the homogeneous groups - clusters. The study of clusters of the labour markets in view of their territorial arrangement and administrative mechanism of the country is necessary for the formation of effective regional policy for the solution of employment problems based on the specificity of the regions of each cluster. In the given work the following tasks were set: to investigate with the help of econometric methods the tendency of employment and factors influencing efficiency of labour potential use in regions of Poland; to construct and to carry out the cluster analysis of the regional labour markets. The analysis of the tendencies of unemployment rate in Poland for the period of 1990-2002 [6] showed that on the whole the tendency of significant growth of the registered unemployment rate is marked; however, the change of unemployment rate demonstrates cyclic character. The characteristic waves of the cyclic process which has caused the growth of unemployment rate in comparison with the trend of 1990-1993, 1998-2001 and the recession of unemployment rate in comparison with the trend of 1994-1997, 2002-2003 were observed. It is obvious, that the waves of the cycle were connected with the influence of certain economic and political factors. For the analysis of the cyclic component by the data of the retrospective period we can use polynomial of 5-th degree, which gives a high enough effect of approximation. Using statistical data, describing the indexes of unemployment rate for each month, in all administrative districts - voivodships for the period of 2002-2004, we developed out the econometric analysis of the common tendencies. The unemployment rates increased during the period of 2004 and we can observe the jump of these indexes especially in the beginning of 2004, i.e. some months before and after joining EU. This effect can be caused by the influence of external factors and economic expectations. For researching of these effects in all voivodships we used models of moving average with intervention. For all voivodships in Poland in time series of unemployment rates a permanent abrupt impact pattern simply implies that overall mean of the times series shifted after intervention. The overall shift is denoted by ω. For majority of voivodships we used the first differences for unemployment rates, except Mazowieckie, Wielkopolskie and Zachodniopomorskie voivodships where we used the second differences of unemployment rates for model. According to the calculations all estimations of parameters in the models are statistically significant, and the residuals of the model are small. The received estimations of parameters at intervention show various reaction of the regional labour markets to changes of external conditions. The given models allow us to make a conclusion, that the intervention connected with a sharp jump of unemployment rate with following stabilization on this high level took place in February of 2004. Thus, we provided the detailed analysis of causes and effects of this phenomenon and to find out which factors have affected the sharp growth of unemployment rate in 2004. In order to investigate the unemployment tendencies in the context of the system approach, it is necessary to study in detail the employment structure in regions (administrative districts, provinces, etc.), to indicate the factors determining the potential of the local labour markets and their distinctive features. It needs additional information and can be continued in more detail researches [6].
But one of the factors which influences the various values of unemployment rates jump in voivodships is a different regional industrial potential. We investigated the regional features and industrial potential in voivodships analyzing the panel data of gross domestic product (GDP) during the period of 1995-2000. By means of econometric analysis we constructed the econometric models that reflect the influence of lagged values and fixed regional effects on gross domestic product indexes in voivodship in Poland. Further we investigated the influence of fixed industrial potential in voivodships and their competitiveness level on intervention unemployment rate indexes. For values of competitiveness level of voivodships we used the data from [1] and presented them as dummy variables. It should be noted that four groups of competitiveness level were given by researchers [1]. Some viovodships specialized in agriculture such as Opolskie, Lubuskie, Świętokrzyskie and Podlaskie were included in group 1 with less competitiveness level. Most advanced viovodships specialized in modern industry, market and financial sphere, such as Dolnoslaskie, Malopolskie, Mazowieckie, Slaskie were included in group 4 with highest competitiveness level. Other viovodships were included in group 2 and in group 3. In addition, we showed, that the higher the regional fixed share GDP of voivodship was the lower jump of parameters of unemployment was. In opposite, the higher level of competitiveness of viovodship stimulated the reduction of non-profitable enterprisers and influenced to increasing jump of unemployment. Both factors (regional fixed share GDP of voivodship and level of competitiveness) give more complicated effect in description of unemployment jumps in the different regions of Poland. The role of regional fixed shares GDP is more strong than level of competitiveness on values of jump of unemployment. For example, the lower jumps of unemployment rate were observed in Dolnośląskie, Wielkopolskie, Mazowieckie, Pomorskie, Slaskie viovodships where regional fixed shares of GDP were significant. The higher jumps of unemployment rate were observed in Swietokrzyskie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie and Lubelskie voivodships where regional fixed shares of GDP were small [6].
In case of Slovakia we studied the effect relationships reflecting the influence of employment on dynamics on regional, sector and branch markets of Slovakia [4, 5] and the econometric dynamic models based on processing of the panel data were used [1]. This type of models allowed us to receive more robust estimations of models parameters and to reveal individual regional or branch effects. The dynamic models were used for describing changes in the number of employed on regional labour markets in different branches and sectors of economy of Slovakia [5]. For construction of the specified models the statistical data on all basic eight regions of Slovakia were used for the period of 1995-2004. The constructed models of employment changes on the regional labour markets in various sectors and branches of economy have shown rather complex dependencies reflecting the influence of the supply and demand factors as well as expectations on the part of the employers and hired workers. In this research the main tendencies of the labour markets in various regions of Slovakia were investigated. The dependencies between educational potential of the economically active population and specializations of the regional labour markets were revealed. The empirical analysis and received models based on statistical data for 1995-2004 have shown and explained the complicated tendencies of transition period for labour markets of Slovak economy [2, 5]. In addition, we considered the influence of new important factors such as innovation and development of human resources skills on permanent expansion of labour markets capabilities [4, 7]. It is should be noted that some of the mentioned models may be developed by machine learning and tested by other time periods for regions in Poland and Slovakia [3].
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