Assessment of the impact of the economic activity size and the number of economic entities on the employment-to-population ratio in Ukraine
Facilitating full and productive employment of the population is one of the priority tasks in the context of ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of Ukraine [1]. The condition for the fulfillment of this task is primarily an increase in the demand for labor force, which depends on such factors as the size of economic activity and the number of economic entities. In this regard, it is expedient to create a model that will allow for a predictive assessment of the impact of these factors on the employment level of the population of Ukraine.
The connection between the components of the model allows to estimate the correlation coefficient which reflects both the nature of this connection (direct or inverse) and its strength (it is generally determined according to the Chaddock scale). The initial information for correlation analysis and model formation is given in the Table 1 which contains data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [2] on the employment-to-population ratio (EP) and the number of entities of large (LE), medium (ME) and small-sized entrepreneurship (SE) in Ukraine in 2010-2021. The correlation coefficients are presented in the Table 2.
| Years | EP, % | LE | ME | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 65,5 | 586 | 20983 | 357241 |
| 2011 | 66,3 | 659 | 20753 | 354283 |
| 2012 | 66,9 | 698 | 20189 | 344048 |
| 2013 | 67,3 | 659 | 18859 | 373809 |
| 2014 | 64,5 | 497 | 15906 | 324598 |
| 2015 | 64,7 | 423 | 15203 | 327814 |
| 2016 | 64,2 | 383 | 14832 | 291154 |
| 2017 | 64,5 | 399 | 14937 | 322920 |
| 2018 | 66,1 | 446 | 16057 | 339374 |
| 2019 | 67,6 | 518 | 17751 | 362328 |
| 2020 | 65,6 | 512 | 17602 | 355708 |
| 2021 | 65,3 | 610 | 17502 | 352722 |
| LE | ME | SE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EP | 0,665228 | 0,629546 | 0,787975 |
The results of the correlation analysis (Table 2) indicate that an increase in the number of small business entities contributes to the growth of the employment rate among the working age population of Ukraine (the value of the correlation coefficient between EP and SE is the largest; according to the Chaddock scale, it is identified as a direct and strong connection). The dynamics of the number of large and medium-sized entrepreneurship entities does not have a significant impact on the employment level of the working age population in Ukraine (according to the Chaddock scale, the correlation between EP and LE as well as between EP and ME is direct and moderate).
A further step is determining the analytical type of relationship between the resulting feature of EP (Y) and the factor feature of SE (X) using the method of the regression analysis. Values of regression coefficients: a = 51.97299868, b = 4.01422E-05. Therefore, the linear regression equation will have the following form:
\[ Y = 51,97299868 + 4,01422E-05*X \tag{1}\]
The resulting equation is possible to use as a regression, insofar as the approximation error is 0.93%, which is acceptable.
The significance of the regression equation was generally established on the basis of the value of F-test. The tabular value of F-test at the five-percent level of significance equals 4.96, and the calculated value is equal to 16.37861, hence, the coefficient of determination is statistically significant and the regression equation is statistically reliable.
Based on the obtained regression model, it can be concluded that an increase in the number of small-sized entrepreneurship entities by 10,000 units ensures an increase in the level of employment of the working population of Ukraine by approximately 0.4%. Thus, the implementation and implementation of small business support and development programs should become one of the priority directions of state policy in Ukraine in the context of ensuring more full employment of the population.
References
- Національна економічна стратегія на період до 2030 року. URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/179-2021-п#n25
- Офіційний сайт Державної служби статистики України. URL: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua